Hi Vivian. Really enjoyed reading your thoughts. I agree with you that the status quo is no longer sustainable. From a strategic and social perspective, the equality of burden is becoming a necessity for national resilience, especially given the current security landscape. However, timing of this enforcement seems to be the ultimate “stress test”for the gov’t. Questions for you…1. If Netanyahu fails to pass a draft law that satisfies the Haredim before the election, is there any path for him to maintain a right-wing bloc? Or will there be a permanent divorce between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties? 2. Polls I’ve seen show the new Bennett-Lapid alliance running close to Likud. How would a centrist win change the conscription policy? Would they push for a hard draft, or would they be forced into a compromise to form a stable government? Look forward to your comments😊
Great questions, Peter. There is no way Bibi will pass a draft law that will satisfy the haredim. The country would implode immediately if he even tried. Can he maintain a right wing bloc on that circumstance? So - a few clarifications. There is nothing right or left about the haredim - a mislabel. They are interested in two things: money for their autonomous society and shirking the draft and all national service and responsibility. Having said that - Shas - the sephardic "haredi" party - is interesting. Most Shas voters are not haredi. They work and serve. They vote Shas because of a deep residual resentment of the founding elites of Israel who were overwhelmingly Ashkenaz and treated Sephardic/Mizrachi Jews terribly. The Shas leader - twice convicted felon, Aryeh Deri - is well aware of this and he has demonstrated very flexible principles in the past. If it kept him in the coalition it is not a wild scenario for him to support a coalition that brought in a proper draft law. Deri's voters are very angry with the haredi shirking. Interestingly - the haredim refer to it as a draft law. Most Israelis use the Hebrew word for "shirk" to describe Netanyahu's proposed law.
As for Bibi - he'll do anything to remain in power. He's not right left or upside down. He's a hollow man.
The union between the haredim and Likud is purely pragmatic. The haredim have no views/positions on foreign policy, security, economic policy - again - only the two broad issues that matter to them. Let us remember. as well, that most haredim are anti-Zionist.
Question 2 - Bennett and Lapid are saying all the right things regarding a draft law. I believe they would hold firm on that issue. But the key to ensuring that is for Lieberman and Eisenkot to be in the mix. Lieberman especially. He always comes through with 7-9 seats. What's interesting about him is that his base was Russians. Many of his voters have passed away but he maintains his numbers. I have not seen any polls or studies and I have asked these questions of many who should know the answers but don't. But here's my theory. Based on anecdotal evidence only. Where is Lieberman getting his support? A lot of it is from immigrants from western democracies as well as - are you ready? Tel Aviv hipster types. Lieberman is perceived as being the most reliable MK who will refuse to give an inch to the haredim. He will hold the line. He is the only one I trust to do that on the draft issue. And he always seems to have enough mandates to make his inclusion in any non-extremist coalition critical. I believe Eisenkot will play a similar role in upcoming elections.
This is all about coalition building. The majority of Israelis want the extremists out. That means haredim and Ben Gvir. It is much more about equal burden sharing in every respect and much less about right-left. Bennett is more right. Lapid centrist. Lieberman right middle and left (on social issues - in this country). Eisenkot probably centre/centre left. His new high profile recruit - more right-ish. But there's not much, if any, daylight on security issues between the parties. This election is about corruption. October 7. Accountability. The draft. The tax and social burden. Haredim will not trust Bibi again. And they know they are toast with any other mix.
If we work with the possibility of a Bennett-Lapid led coalition.......given the certainty that Eisenkot and Lieberman would be part of it......I think it very unlikely that they would accede to much of a compromise on any draft bill. But they might have to if that was the price to pay to form a government. But. That would only be necessary - imo - if Shas was required to form the coalition. If this country is united on one thing it is that the holiday for the ultra-orthodox is over.
Also - keep in mind that Likud could well be part of a new coalition - even with Bibi at the top. I don't care what Bennett and Lapid say today. If Likud is tasked with forming a coalition first by the President........and it is possible to do so without the ultra orthodox, without Ben Gvir and Smotrich.......Likud, Bennett and Lapid, Eisenkot, Yair Golan, Lieberman, and a few loose ends......that's one helluva coalition. I think the price for Likud would be to drop their judicial reform. Or dramatically revise it. And I think that all of that is doable. But the outcome that. many would prefer would be a Bennett-Lapid led coalition. No compromise on the draft. Dramatically reduce/eliminate haredi financial and other entitlements. And forge on.
(Haven't proofread this reply so excuse errrors.....but running out and wanted to get this off to you.)
Thanks for the masterclass Vivian! This was an incredible breakdown and very much appreciated😊
The Mizrahi context regarding Shas is a perspective often missing from the usual coverage and your comments re Lieberman’s "hipster" base makes perfect sense. It really does feel like the usual left-right labels are being replaced by a much more urgent debate over the social burden and accountability.
I really appreciate your taking the time to respond while busy with so many other things. Great work as always on your podcast. It’s clearly coming from a place of deep insight.
Hi Vivian. Really enjoyed reading your thoughts. I agree with you that the status quo is no longer sustainable. From a strategic and social perspective, the equality of burden is becoming a necessity for national resilience, especially given the current security landscape. However, timing of this enforcement seems to be the ultimate “stress test”for the gov’t. Questions for you…1. If Netanyahu fails to pass a draft law that satisfies the Haredim before the election, is there any path for him to maintain a right-wing bloc? Or will there be a permanent divorce between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties? 2. Polls I’ve seen show the new Bennett-Lapid alliance running close to Likud. How would a centrist win change the conscription policy? Would they push for a hard draft, or would they be forced into a compromise to form a stable government? Look forward to your comments😊
Great questions, Peter. There is no way Bibi will pass a draft law that will satisfy the haredim. The country would implode immediately if he even tried. Can he maintain a right wing bloc on that circumstance? So - a few clarifications. There is nothing right or left about the haredim - a mislabel. They are interested in two things: money for their autonomous society and shirking the draft and all national service and responsibility. Having said that - Shas - the sephardic "haredi" party - is interesting. Most Shas voters are not haredi. They work and serve. They vote Shas because of a deep residual resentment of the founding elites of Israel who were overwhelmingly Ashkenaz and treated Sephardic/Mizrachi Jews terribly. The Shas leader - twice convicted felon, Aryeh Deri - is well aware of this and he has demonstrated very flexible principles in the past. If it kept him in the coalition it is not a wild scenario for him to support a coalition that brought in a proper draft law. Deri's voters are very angry with the haredi shirking. Interestingly - the haredim refer to it as a draft law. Most Israelis use the Hebrew word for "shirk" to describe Netanyahu's proposed law.
As for Bibi - he'll do anything to remain in power. He's not right left or upside down. He's a hollow man.
The union between the haredim and Likud is purely pragmatic. The haredim have no views/positions on foreign policy, security, economic policy - again - only the two broad issues that matter to them. Let us remember. as well, that most haredim are anti-Zionist.
Question 2 - Bennett and Lapid are saying all the right things regarding a draft law. I believe they would hold firm on that issue. But the key to ensuring that is for Lieberman and Eisenkot to be in the mix. Lieberman especially. He always comes through with 7-9 seats. What's interesting about him is that his base was Russians. Many of his voters have passed away but he maintains his numbers. I have not seen any polls or studies and I have asked these questions of many who should know the answers but don't. But here's my theory. Based on anecdotal evidence only. Where is Lieberman getting his support? A lot of it is from immigrants from western democracies as well as - are you ready? Tel Aviv hipster types. Lieberman is perceived as being the most reliable MK who will refuse to give an inch to the haredim. He will hold the line. He is the only one I trust to do that on the draft issue. And he always seems to have enough mandates to make his inclusion in any non-extremist coalition critical. I believe Eisenkot will play a similar role in upcoming elections.
This is all about coalition building. The majority of Israelis want the extremists out. That means haredim and Ben Gvir. It is much more about equal burden sharing in every respect and much less about right-left. Bennett is more right. Lapid centrist. Lieberman right middle and left (on social issues - in this country). Eisenkot probably centre/centre left. His new high profile recruit - more right-ish. But there's not much, if any, daylight on security issues between the parties. This election is about corruption. October 7. Accountability. The draft. The tax and social burden. Haredim will not trust Bibi again. And they know they are toast with any other mix.
If we work with the possibility of a Bennett-Lapid led coalition.......given the certainty that Eisenkot and Lieberman would be part of it......I think it very unlikely that they would accede to much of a compromise on any draft bill. But they might have to if that was the price to pay to form a government. But. That would only be necessary - imo - if Shas was required to form the coalition. If this country is united on one thing it is that the holiday for the ultra-orthodox is over.
Also - keep in mind that Likud could well be part of a new coalition - even with Bibi at the top. I don't care what Bennett and Lapid say today. If Likud is tasked with forming a coalition first by the President........and it is possible to do so without the ultra orthodox, without Ben Gvir and Smotrich.......Likud, Bennett and Lapid, Eisenkot, Yair Golan, Lieberman, and a few loose ends......that's one helluva coalition. I think the price for Likud would be to drop their judicial reform. Or dramatically revise it. And I think that all of that is doable. But the outcome that. many would prefer would be a Bennett-Lapid led coalition. No compromise on the draft. Dramatically reduce/eliminate haredi financial and other entitlements. And forge on.
(Haven't proofread this reply so excuse errrors.....but running out and wanted to get this off to you.)
Thank you for another great column. Loved the pictures of you and Maya.
H&S
❤️
Thanks for the masterclass Vivian! This was an incredible breakdown and very much appreciated😊
The Mizrahi context regarding Shas is a perspective often missing from the usual coverage and your comments re Lieberman’s "hipster" base makes perfect sense. It really does feel like the usual left-right labels are being replaced by a much more urgent debate over the social burden and accountability.
I really appreciate your taking the time to respond while busy with so many other things. Great work as always on your podcast. It’s clearly coming from a place of deep insight.