Weekly Wrap: Early Election Vibes and Moves

Ethics, service and unity are the core issues for most Israelis

Special Note: We had planned to drop the second podcast today focusing on the violent antisemitism in Toronto, that has been receiving so much international attention recently. And it was all ready to go when - something happened. I thought it was significant enough to merit holding the pod for one day so that it could be included.. Apologies - but tomorrow - Monday - is a sure thing. The podcast shall be sent out.

Election season is upon us.

By law, Israelis must go to the polls before the end of October 2026. The last election was held on October 30, 2022; the fifth one in less than four years. The result was the extremist coalition government headed by Prime Minister Netanyahu that has been in power since.

Through the judicial reform protests.

October 7.

War. After War. After War.

Almost three years after October 7, one might expect that the way forward is clear.

It is anything but.

Israel is more divided than ever, and political strategists are unable to explain why.

So – allow me to give it a go…..

To many Israelis - myself included – the possibility of a government comprised of those currently in the coalition is a dark prospect.

In last week’s wrap, we included a discussion of Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben Gvir - who is also the coalition’s Minister of National Security.

He celebrated his 50^th birthday with a collection of cakes featuring nooses, guns and his portrait.

To refresh your memory, or in case you missed it, this is on topic from last week’s wrap:

In another classy move, Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir hosted a 50th birthday party for himself last night. In addition to the Chief of Israel’s police force, many senior cops were also invited and attended, which has caused something of a flap. Traditionally, there is a polite and professional distance maintained between political leadership and senior public servants. Ben Gvir and the police leadership that attended this soiree erased that line.

There were several cakes served at the party last night. The tiered beauty below was topped with Ben Gvir’s trinket of choice these days - a gold noose. Note his portrait in the middle. On the base - there is a map of Israel (including the West Bank) flanked by black guns – on either side.

Yummy!

The reaction to Ben Gvir’s grotesque celebration of violence was pretty much widespread disgust. Even for a professional provocateur this display of tasteless extremism was just too much.

Ben Gvir also received a birthday surprise from Yonatan Shamriz, the brother of Alon, who was 26 when killed on December 15, 2023, in the Gaza Strip. Alon had been taken hostage by Hamas on October 7 from his home on Kibbutz Kfar Aza. Along with two other male hostages, Alon somehow managed to break free from his captors. But when spotted by IDF troops they were all shot dead, in the mistaken belief that they were Hamas foils trying to entrap the soldiers. That was a tried-and-true Hamas tactic – to lure IDF soldiers into ambushes by using civilians as bait. Tragically, on that day, they were hostages.

The triple death gutted Israelis. It was incomprehensible.

Since October 7, Yonatan Shamriz became a social and political activist, in addition to his side gigs as a successful businessman, husband, father, son, brother.

He founded a movement called Kumu – meaning – “Awaken” in Hebrew and his advocacy has focused on restoring ethical conduct to key institutions in Israel. Most Israelis see October 7 as a direct result of massive institutional failures; years of arrogance, corruption and negligent leadership.

Here is Yonatan Shamriz’s birthday video to Itamar Ben Gvir, with English subtitles.

Translated by Maya Naftolin

Shamriz is not some kooky radical. His views are pretty mainstream. Israelis have been duped and worse by military and political leadership and they have had so much more than enough. The rage is palpable. I thought it would be interesting for you to see and experience the mood here. I’m not sure that people outside the country appreciate how intense the rage remains. Perhaps even moreso than on October 8. Because after almost three years, we still have the same government in power that created the conditions for the disaster. And that government has still not taken responsibility for that day. The Prime Minister refuses to accept any responsibility for October 7.

I was speaking recently with an American friend, who asked me a question I hear all the time: “Who else is there?”

Meaning - who, other than Bibi, can lead Israel?

Seriously?

Another question that has been popping up frequently - is about the recent merger of the parties led by right-ish former PM Naftali Bennett and centrist Yair Lapid.

What does it mean?

Honestly? Not much. It means that they are trying to form a large bloc to give them an edge when it comes to being tasked by the President with forming a coalition after the next vote. Typically (but not always) it is the party with the most mandates that is given the opportunity to form a coalition of at least 61 seats.

Aside from that. It’s a little early for this sort of jockeying. The Bennett-Lapid merger kind of surprised many astute observers of Israeli politics. But – it does give them time to entice more parties to join them. Like former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose party is polling very strongly. For many reasons it seems unlikely that Eisenkot will join the two musketeers. In fact, he recruited a star candidate recently, who appeared in an interview last night with one of Israel’s top journalists. His comments were such fire and brimstone that I may have it translated to share with you next week.

Israeli politics is all about coalition building. Netanyahu has spent four years pandering to the most destructive, dangerous, extremist forces in Israeli public life; the largely anti-Zionist ultra-orthodox bloc, and the extremist messianist demographic.

Likud, as well, is not what it once was. The brains and talent have peeled off over the years, leaving a husk of what the party once was.

A big problem is that most of the more reasonable Israeli voters tend not to exercise their democratic franchise. E-Day is a holiday in Israel. People prefer going to the beach or shopping. But so much turns on the outcome of this election. Voters must see that and show up.

Because the extremists? They are very motivated. They turn out to vote. The ultra-orthodox? Historically, they have done whatever their rabbis direct. Voter turnout in heavily haredi cities often exceeds 100%. For real.

Only an invigorated electorate will usher in the change that this country so desperately needs. Should the extremists prevail, I fear the worst for Israel. But more on that in the coming months. Election season is just gearing up.

What do the majority of Israelis care about today?

They care about the ultra-orthodox shirking any and all military service.

They care about equality. A properly functioning and accountable democracy. They care about Jewish terrorism, which is not a “fringe” issue or concern.

They care about competence - in the army, government and security services.

If another extremist coalition prevails, I believe it will herald the demise of a modern, technologically advanced Israel. The talent will leave. It will hemorrhage.

It is amazing that at age 76, having held the top job in Israel for most of the past 30 years, Benjamin Netanyahu – a brilliant man – either does not see the extreme damage he is causing to Israel, or he does not care.

To Israelis, his motive is not important. We’ve lost interest. The survival of a liberal, democratic Israel, however, is. It is all that matters.

I’m trying to think of something light and nice to end with……my weekly pledge.

Happy Mother’s Day. If you aren’t one then you have one. And you know one.

As a matter of interest, Mother’s Day isn’t a thing in Israel. I only remembered because of messages from many of my friends in Canada and the U.S.

Until next week……

---

Show your support for STLV at buymeacoffee.com/stateoftelaviv

---