Listen now (53 mins) | Threats from Iran and Its Allies In this episode, I discuss the heightened tensions in Israel amid fears of an imminent attack from Iran and its regional allies, a situation compounded by the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Will August 5 be today’s equivalent of June 5, 1967? There is talk of a preemptive strike against Iran and Hezbollah. If there is substance to these reports, the question is whether the U.S. will “allow” it. After all, given Iran’s aggressive rhetoric, backed presumably with evidence that it is preparing a massive missile attack, there is no rule of international law requiring Israel to passively accept any attack as a condition precedent to defending itself.
There also remains a question of internal politics within the Biden Administration, a part of which still seeks to remove Netanyahu from power - while at the same time seeming to want to keep Hamas in power in Gaza. The U.S. needs, finally, to choose a side.
It seems to me that if the Biden Administration changes its rhetoric from supporting Israel’s right to defend itself to its right to eliminate those threats altogether, the situation clarifies itself. Historically, when there is no daylight between the U.S. and Israel, the region is more secure and the Sunni Arab countries see the U.S. as a dependable ally.
Well, Charles, the 5th has come and gone. So. Maybe the 6th? 7th? Who knows. Here’s what we do know and I think, fwiw.
The Iranians…..as Conricus pointed out….uncustomarily came out early and unequivocally. They are now committed to some big attack on Israelmdoeectly from their soil.
Meanwhile, their threats notwithstanding, Saudi and Jordan have refused to allow Iran to use their airspace to send missiles/whatever.
Centcom general is in Israel. U.S. warships in the region and ready. U.S. basically doesn’t have a Prez at the moment. This is the moment that Pentagon has been waiting for, imo. When they can strike Iran hard, in concert w Israel. The second Iran launches a drone that will be the moment that Israel and U.S. respond. To Iran and Hizballah. And it will be very, very strong. I believe that’s the intended/hoped for scenario. Oh. One more thing. Lots of Russian shipments to Tehran in recent days of equipment to upgrade IRGC air defence capabilities.
Oh. And leadership chaos in Iran. Everyone in IRGC is suspect. New President. Likely panicked Supreme Leader. I mean. Things aren’t exactly ducky in the Oslamic republic at the top.
It was indeed odd that Ayatollah Khameini issued his very public declaration of war - which he cast as some exercise in punishment. One can only wonder if he somehow imagined that hatred for Jews would force the Sunni states to rally around the otherwise hated Shi’a Persia on the reasoning that its loss of face was really that of the Ummah.
As for the average Iranian, any devastation meted out by Israel just might fracture that already divided society. It seems from protests over at least the past decade that the majority of Iranians are not interested or vested in the Palestinians and their “cause.” If they suffer for a cause not their own, rallying around the flag against the “aggressor” may not be the result.
And I can only imagine the Ayatollah’s shock when the Saudis and Jordanians publicly rejected overflight authorization. Then again, as Iran has been for decades trying to destabilize these two monarchies …. Maybe neither is on board with Iran’s hegemonic pretensions for the region.
You have pointed out much of the chaos in the region which today’s appointment of Sinwar as Haniyeh’s replacement only increases. But militarily, it’s not a great option for Iran to shuffle its drones and missiles via Syria. If Hezbollah is forced to take the lead, that bodes ill for Lebanon. If the Houthis do, Yemen is put at risk.
Whatever happens, I don’t see the U.S. joining Israel in any offensive strategy. We seem happy parrying even if that means we must tolerate infinite thrusting. I wish it were otherwise, and we tried to eliminate the threat itself but I detect no policy appetite within the Biden Administration for such resolute action.
Finally, I too saw the reports of Russia sending advanced radar and detection systems to Iran. If true, three options suggest themselves. First, it’s manned by Russians. Second, Iranians were already trained (somewhere) and will man the systems. Third, it’s for show and won’t come on line - Russia won’t care, the systems are bought and paid for with no warranty for return and refund.
Agree on all,.....and I think that with respect to the Russians the third possibility you suggest is the most likely. It's more theatre than anything. As for the US not joining in offensive action - we'll see. That would depend on how wild and wacky the Iranians get. Perhaps the presence of Centcom and the warships will be enough of a deterrent for Iran. but the US is not just concerned with Israel - Saudi and Jordan as well - and of course......it's great ally......Qatar...:)
Great as always. Ya'akov who? You have a deep bench at STA. Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Jonathan Conricus was a beacon of hope, sort of. Maybe Jackson Hole has brightened his outlook. Thinking of you and many thanks for being our eyes in ears in Israel. Dave (from Virginia).
Very good podcast once again. Much more information than what the MSM is providing!
Interesting parallel between Netanyahu possibly delaying hostage negotiations and the allegations that a Trudeau liberal MP suggested to the CCP that the release of the two Michaels be delayed for political purposes. We’ve heard pundits claim that Trudeau isn’t much different than Trump. Perhaps he’s even closer to Netanyahu.
Excellent pod, per usual. Sending love and prayers you stay safe ❌⭕
Thx Susan. We need the positive energy.
Great episode. Thanks so much for this.
Will August 5 be today’s equivalent of June 5, 1967? There is talk of a preemptive strike against Iran and Hezbollah. If there is substance to these reports, the question is whether the U.S. will “allow” it. After all, given Iran’s aggressive rhetoric, backed presumably with evidence that it is preparing a massive missile attack, there is no rule of international law requiring Israel to passively accept any attack as a condition precedent to defending itself.
There also remains a question of internal politics within the Biden Administration, a part of which still seeks to remove Netanyahu from power - while at the same time seeming to want to keep Hamas in power in Gaza. The U.S. needs, finally, to choose a side.
It seems to me that if the Biden Administration changes its rhetoric from supporting Israel’s right to defend itself to its right to eliminate those threats altogether, the situation clarifies itself. Historically, when there is no daylight between the U.S. and Israel, the region is more secure and the Sunni Arab countries see the U.S. as a dependable ally.
Well, Charles, the 5th has come and gone. So. Maybe the 6th? 7th? Who knows. Here’s what we do know and I think, fwiw.
The Iranians…..as Conricus pointed out….uncustomarily came out early and unequivocally. They are now committed to some big attack on Israelmdoeectly from their soil.
Meanwhile, their threats notwithstanding, Saudi and Jordan have refused to allow Iran to use their airspace to send missiles/whatever.
Centcom general is in Israel. U.S. warships in the region and ready. U.S. basically doesn’t have a Prez at the moment. This is the moment that Pentagon has been waiting for, imo. When they can strike Iran hard, in concert w Israel. The second Iran launches a drone that will be the moment that Israel and U.S. respond. To Iran and Hizballah. And it will be very, very strong. I believe that’s the intended/hoped for scenario. Oh. One more thing. Lots of Russian shipments to Tehran in recent days of equipment to upgrade IRGC air defence capabilities.
Oh. And leadership chaos in Iran. Everyone in IRGC is suspect. New President. Likely panicked Supreme Leader. I mean. Things aren’t exactly ducky in the Oslamic republic at the top.
We’ll see.
It was indeed odd that Ayatollah Khameini issued his very public declaration of war - which he cast as some exercise in punishment. One can only wonder if he somehow imagined that hatred for Jews would force the Sunni states to rally around the otherwise hated Shi’a Persia on the reasoning that its loss of face was really that of the Ummah.
As for the average Iranian, any devastation meted out by Israel just might fracture that already divided society. It seems from protests over at least the past decade that the majority of Iranians are not interested or vested in the Palestinians and their “cause.” If they suffer for a cause not their own, rallying around the flag against the “aggressor” may not be the result.
And I can only imagine the Ayatollah’s shock when the Saudis and Jordanians publicly rejected overflight authorization. Then again, as Iran has been for decades trying to destabilize these two monarchies …. Maybe neither is on board with Iran’s hegemonic pretensions for the region.
You have pointed out much of the chaos in the region which today’s appointment of Sinwar as Haniyeh’s replacement only increases. But militarily, it’s not a great option for Iran to shuffle its drones and missiles via Syria. If Hezbollah is forced to take the lead, that bodes ill for Lebanon. If the Houthis do, Yemen is put at risk.
Whatever happens, I don’t see the U.S. joining Israel in any offensive strategy. We seem happy parrying even if that means we must tolerate infinite thrusting. I wish it were otherwise, and we tried to eliminate the threat itself but I detect no policy appetite within the Biden Administration for such resolute action.
Finally, I too saw the reports of Russia sending advanced radar and detection systems to Iran. If true, three options suggest themselves. First, it’s manned by Russians. Second, Iranians were already trained (somewhere) and will man the systems. Third, it’s for show and won’t come on line - Russia won’t care, the systems are bought and paid for with no warranty for return and refund.
But, as you say, we’ll see.
Agree on all,.....and I think that with respect to the Russians the third possibility you suggest is the most likely. It's more theatre than anything. As for the US not joining in offensive action - we'll see. That would depend on how wild and wacky the Iranians get. Perhaps the presence of Centcom and the warships will be enough of a deterrent for Iran. but the US is not just concerned with Israel - Saudi and Jordan as well - and of course......it's great ally......Qatar...:)
Thank you so much for making this episode available to all.
It’s a balance. I’d like to make all pods available to all. But reality bites. Good to know that you appreciated it.🙏
Great as always. Ya'akov who? You have a deep bench at STA. Lieutenant Colonel (Res.) Jonathan Conricus was a beacon of hope, sort of. Maybe Jackson Hole has brightened his outlook. Thinking of you and many thanks for being our eyes in ears in Israel. Dave (from Virginia).
Very good podcast once again. Much more information than what the MSM is providing!
Interesting parallel between Netanyahu possibly delaying hostage negotiations and the allegations that a Trudeau liberal MP suggested to the CCP that the release of the two Michaels be delayed for political purposes. We’ve heard pundits claim that Trudeau isn’t much different than Trump. Perhaps he’s even closer to Netanyahu.