Reimagining Mid-East Regional Security After April 13
By Maayan Hoffman
Editor’s Note: This past week in Israel has been, well, off the charts. Indescribable. On the one hand, the night of the Iran attack was terrifying. On the other, it was just another day in Israel. A little torqued, perhaps. Amazingly, Maayan Hoffman, had the clarity to see the opportunity in the moment. I spoke with her on the afternoon of Sunday, April 14, as I wandered aimlessly in central Tel Aviv, smoothie in hand, trying to process all that had transpired in the previous 24 hours. Maayan was way ahead of me and articulating what sounded like a fascinating and very timely reflection on what this might mean for regional security and economic ties. The result of that exchange is the article, below. This is Maayan’s debut in the State of Tel Aviv and we are honored to have her. See below for her bio – if her name is familiar to you it’s for good reason.
On April 13, the skies above Israel were illuminated by hundreds of Iranian missiles and attack drones. This aerial assault targeted the Jewish state, purportedly in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, earlier in the month.
In a remarkable show of unity and defense, Israel, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Jordan and Saudi Arabia joined forces to intercept the attack. An astonishing 99% of the missiles and drones were neutralized before reaching their targets in Israel. This collaborative effort in military defense was unprecedented and, very likely, a “game changer” for the region in so many ways, particularly in light of the ongoing war with Hamas.
As the battle in Gaza has continued for more than six months, Israel has faced allegations ranging from war crimes to genocide from NGOs, including the United Nations and World Health Organization, and more than a few countries. However, Arab nations like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have only expressed mild criticism, if anything, while focusing more on containing and averting a regional escalation of the conflict. It’s a curious and somewhat unexpected outcome, and raises the question: Could the military success of Saturday April 13 reinvigorate discussions regarding regional defense and cooperation?
According to Seth Frantzman, an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and author of several books focusing on Israeli defense policy and capabilities, enhanced collaboration in air defenses and behind-the-scenes dialogue between Israel and moderate Arab states in the region is imperative. This need is heightened by the United States’ intention to reduce its presence in the area over the next decade.
"Proactive measures from allies to counter threats ranging from terrorism to extremism would ensure a more secure and stable future for the region," Frantzman said.
Before October 7th, the United States was already scaling back its military presence in the region. This included the complete withdrawal of more than 100,000 troops from Afghanistan and reducing its troops in Iraq from a peak of 130,000 to fewer than 3,000 in 2021. Simultaneously, the United States was dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, causing significant economic setbacks and more than 1.2 million fatalities. Additional internal issues further prompted the Biden administration to prioritize domestic affairs. Historically, America has turned to isolationism as a perceived solution to its challenges, although this approach has consistently proven to be ineffective.'
The negotiation of the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020 marked a seismic shift for Middle East geopolitics. More than anything, the Accords were based on the common understanding that the Iranian threat was a significant and existential issue for all nations in the region.
Beyond fostering improved relations, tourism and business opportunities, the Abraham Accords laid the groundwork for initiatives like the Negev Forum, which STLV covered extensively here. This forum facilitated discussions on collaborative regional projects across diverse sectors, including security cooperation. There was even early talk of a joint defense pact.
Before the Gaza war, it appeared that Israel and Saudi Arabia were also on the verge of a historic normalization agreement. Just days before the October 7th massacre, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), said in an interview with Fox News that "every day we are getting closer" to an agreement with Israel.
Many analysts believe that the October attack was intended by Iran and Hamas to sabotage peace and diplomatic normalization in the region. According to a Kan (Israeli) News report, an unnamed member of the Saudi Royal family recently affirmed this notion, blaming Iran for orchestrating the conflict in Gaza to derail the progress towards normalizing relations with Israel.
Also aligned with this perspective is Prof. Meir Litvak, director of the Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University, who said earlier this week, "Maybe what happened Saturday night will help advance the broader US strategy, which is good for Israel: Regional realignment, which will also be a solution to Gaza with the Arab states and maybe an opportunity to advance peace or even a secret alignment with Saudi Arabia or other moderate Sunni Arab states."
Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at the influential Institute for National Security Studies concurs, noting that, "what Iran achieved [in attacking Israel] was to make all states more afraid of Iran than before and reminded them that Israel has to be part of a regional system in the future that will tackle Iranian threats."
After October 7, there was also fear that Israel's stunning military and intelligence failure to anticipate and repel the Hamas attack could, in and of itself, put normalization with the Saudis at risk. This is because one of the leading foundational principles supporting regional peace agreements has been a belief that Israel’s military prowess could protect neighboring countries against Iran and its destabilizing proxies in the area. This presumption was called into question after October 7.
While Israel's powerful defense last Saturday night does not "erase the tragedy of October 7 and the failure of October 7, it amends it to some extent," Litvak said.
"We projected an unbelievable technological and military success," Litvak added. This was the first time the Iranian state launched such an attack, failing miserably. As much as it was a military failure for the Iranians, it was a significant success for Israel—technological, intelligence, and Air Force.”
He said that the fact that Israel did not stop the aerial attack on its own was of no consequence. That "Israel and the US worked together was another major factor in Israel's strength," Litvak continued. "Arab states were on our side. This is a major factor and a source of strength."
Saudi Arabia was not the only surprise contributor to Saturday night's success: As information about the event unfolded, footage from Jordan revealed the interception of Iranian attack drones en route to Israel. Official sources in Amman confirmed to Reuters that Jordanian fighter jets effectively neutralized multiple drones.
The event highlighted how the Jordanian Air Force has evolved from a former adversary into a crucial ally of Israel.
Iranian forces had explicitly called out Jordan, warning the Arab country – which has maintained a cold peace with Israel since 1994 – not to collaborate with Israel. According to Iran's semi-official Fars news agency, the country warned Jordan that it would be the "next target" if it helped Israel.
In spite of this Iranian threat, Jordanian fighter jets successfully intercepted numerous Iranian drones as they approached Jerusalem from the Jordanian side of the Jordan Valley, media reported. Additional drone interceptions were reported near the Iraqi-Syrian border.
Renewing regional stabilization efforts is primarily in Israel's court.
Although Israel has not formally confirmed it, the country appeared to have carried out a retaliatory strike against Iran overnight Thursday. This action should send a strong and implicit warning that Israel has the capability to strike Iran forcefully, and that Iran should think carefully before provoking Israel in the future.
It may be too early to tell what the impact of the strike will be, but Iran has been minimizing the impact of the attack claiming that no significant targets were hit and that they even managed to intercept some drones. By downplaying the incident, they avoid providing justification for any potential retaliation.
American media has reported that Israel informed the Biden administration of its plans in advance.
Israel seems to have carefully weighed its response in light of this week’s visit by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, who urged that any reaction be carried out in a way that minimizes escalation. Cameron’s caution was aligned with “suggestions” from the Biden administration that Israel should proceed cautiously.
"It would be a major blunder to defy or humiliate Biden after he has been so helpful, especially given the pressure he faces in the Democratic Party for his support of Israel," Litvak stressed. "Israel cannot afford to alienate President Biden."
Additionally, Ambassador Jeremy Issacharoff, a former head of the Division for Strategic Affairs, responsible for coordinating the diplomatic efforts regarding the Iranian threat in all its aspects, notes that if Israel wants to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, it would likely need to indicate its willingness to “solve” the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including perhaps a two-state solution. Issacharoff is now retired from public service.
"A vision of how we prevent the return to the status quo before October 7 by identifying a pathway to a two-state solution," Issacharoff, a regular columnist for the left-leaning Haaretz, said. "What are the alternatives? We can annex the West Bank or reconquer Gaza. We can set up a military administration there and be responsible for all the reconstruction, which is way beyond what Israel can ever do.
"Or we can say, let's try to pursue some kind of political compromise with the Palestinians," with Saudi Arabia at the forefront, he said.
In February, Saudi Arabia told the United States that it would refrain from establishing diplomatic ties with Israel unless there is recognition of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem designated as its capital.
However, other sources indicated that this was not a prerequisite. In the heady, optimistic days leading up to October 7th, the assumption – not dismissed publicly by the Saudis – was that an expression of sincere intent to address the Palestinian issue would suffice. Acceptance of a “return” to the ’67 borders, particularly in a post October 7th world, is highly unlikely.
Whether or not Netanyahu's hawkish government can agree to open such a dialogue – or whether Israel can afford to consider any next steps for Gaza while more than 100 hostages remain captive in Hamas' stronghold – is still to be determined.
October 7th marked a significant and unexpected event, “akin to a black swan event,” said Frantzman, which not only damaged regional relationships but also aimed to systematically sabotage them. April 13, in contrast, highlighted the challenges posed by Iran and its allies, who seek to foster an anti-Western environment, disrupt stability, support terrorism, and deploy proxy militaries that have wreaked havoc and economic ruin in affected countries.
With the aftermath of the joint interception of Iranian drones and missiles, regional security dynamics are ripe for reimagining.
Maayan Hoffman is the former Deputy CEO of Strategy and Innovation for The Jerusalem Post, where she also served as news editor and senior health analyst. She is a veteran American-Israeli journalist who held senior positions throughout the Jewish world, including serving as Editor-in-Chief of the Baltimore Jewish Times and Managing Editor of the Kansas City Jewish Chronicle. Her work has appeared in the Washington Post, Health Policy Watch, All Israel News, American Spectator, Fox, The Hill and Roll Call, among other places.