Friday Wrap: Iran Dominates
Week in review: Last hostage comes home. Massacre of Syrian Kurds. All eyes on Tehran.
As with every week, this past one has been hectic. The pace never lets up…
In State of Tel Aviv and Beyond-land, we begin today with an aspirational goal – to send out a short note every Friday, filling you in on things worth mentioning but that aren’t covered in our longer dispatches. And we will also summarize for you what we’ve published and been up to, generally.
So – here goes.
The remains of Ran Gvili, z”l, the last hostage being held by Hamas, were returned to Israel for burial. The collective closure that his repatriation makes possible is powerful. “Leave no one behind” is much more than a slogan in Israel. It is a pledge that we honor – in death and life. And without it we would simply not be.
Ran’s funeral was attended by members of the leadership class who have been noticeably absent from other similar events, among them Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He sat in a place of honor, next to Gvili’s father, and delivered a short eulogy. Also present were President Herzog, Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, and others. News reports stated that this was the only funeral of an Israeli murdered on that dark day that was attended by the prime minister.
This afternoon (Friday) and evening kabbalat shabbat ceremonies - welcoming the sabbath - were held at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv and at a Kibbutz in the hills near Jerusalem. These will be the final kabbalat shabbat gatherings - convened to ensure that the hostages remained top of mind – which have been held every Friday since October 7.
We kept our commitment to bring them all home.
In other news, you can read my rather sharp critique of the bumbling foreign policy adventures of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney – which hit new lows in recent weeks. The man seems determined to do everything possible to sabotage Canadian trade with the United States. My main advice? (not that he’s asking)
Look at a map, Mark.
My critique in my National Post column a few days ago is stated a little more elegantly but boils down to this: Rushing headlong into the arms of China and Qatar (Carney’s bold new trade diversification strategy) will neither boost Canadian trade nor does it align us with reliable allies. I’d like to say that our national values, as well, are not compatible with those of China and Qatar – but Carney seems to see things differently.
You can read the full column here. We have reproduced the first few paragraphs, below:
SDEROT, Israel — Beijing, Doha, Davos. In just over a week, Prime Minister Mark Carney managed to tell the world that his geopolitical acumen is non-existent.
Let’s begin by looking at a map. Geography is Canada’s mixed blessing, but we cannot alter it. Nor will piecemeal agreements ever make more than a gentle dent in the fact that the majority of our trade is with the United States.
In addition to trade dependence, Canada has rendered itself defenceless. Because of our good fortune in sharing an 8,891 kilometre long border with the United States, we have been derelict in minding our security and military capabilities.
Just last week, it was reported that the Canadian military was looking at scenarios in the event of a U.S. invasion. The country would be overrun in no time by American forces and would have to resort to guerrilla-like tactics to attempt to repel such an attack.
Yet Carney still pretends that Canada is a country with power and leverage. So he travelled to Beijing in mid-January. At the end of his trip, he crowed about having made an agreement to provide access to the critical Chinese market for Canadian canola farmers, who have been hammered by crippling tariffs since August 2025.
Next stop: Qatar, a nation of around 300,000 citizens that is also home to around 2.7-million people, many of whom work in exploitative conditions. For all residing in the country, personal liberty is constrained. Principles of paramount importance to the Canadian government — including gender and sexual rights — are virtually nonexistent in Qatar. Homosexuality is a criminal offence.
On Thursday, State of Tel Aviv and Beyond released a podcast focusing on the plight of the Kurds in Syria, a horrendous massacre of civilians which has received little to no attention in the western media.
There are approximately 50-million Kurds in the world, with about 5-10 million living in the diaspora. They are a strong, proud ethnic nation; liberal, highly educated and natural allies of the United States and all western nations. The Syrian Army – which is basically a ragtag mix of jihadist militias – slaughtered thousands of Kurds in the northern part of the country in recent weeks. It is so important that we be aware of this ongoing conflict and step up for the Kurds; the west’s strongest allies in defeating ISIS.
It is a long and intense podcast which kicks off with a powerhouse guest– Dr. Qanta Ahmed. If her name sounds familiar it is likely because you have seen her on television or read one of her many superb columns. Dr. Ahmed is prolific, articulate, and a staunch advocate for Kurdish rights. As are so many of us, Dr. Ahmed is concerned that the current crisis with the Kurds in Syria is being obscured by the ongoing massacre in Iran. War with the regime what appears to be imminent.
I was fortunate to speak with many people about the Syrian Kurds - in New York, Washington, D.C., Germany and Israel. Our four guests are Muslim, Jewish, Yazidi. They are Pakistani, British, Jordanian, American, Turkish, German and Israeli. In other words – we curated diverse voices. Each has a special perspective.
I suggest that you listen to it in bits. It is intense. Packed with information and points of view. And you will learn a lot. I promise.
(There are time stamps in the podcast notes indicating where each section begins and ends.)
We kicked off the week with a a podcast featuring State of Tel Aviv and Beyond regular, Lt. Col. (Res.) and FDD senior fellow, Jonathan Conricus. He and I discussed the momentous occasion of the return of Ran Gvili z”l, Iran, and more. If you missed it here’s the link.
S4 E5. Iran Attack Imminent? Ran Gvili is Home
We were fortunate to speak yesterday with Lt. Col. (Res.), senior fellow at FDD and regular on State of Tel Aviv and Beyond, Jonathan Conricus- who is catching his breath between speaking tours and consulting abroad. On Monday afternoon, moments after the news came that the remains of Ran Gvili had been identified in the Gaza Strip and were being return…
And – still technically last week – we published this short dispatch (which was really our first weekly summary) – on Saturday evening instead of Friday. Remember –everything is aspirational… You can catch up here. It’s all still relevant:
Saturday Night Live: No Iran Attack, Yet
U.S. Central Command Chief, Brad Cooper, arrived in Israel earlier today. He was joined later by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Some political types and pundits are taking at face value reports of high tension between the White House and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office and accept that these visits are intended to assuage Bibi.
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I leave you with the ongoing anxiety that Israelis sublimate as they carry on with their lives; the question of if when and where the U.S. will strike. And how forceful and widespread the Iranian counterattack will be. And Israel’s response. And, so on.
In recent days, as the final U.S. military assets have arrived in the region and seem to be in place and ready for conflict, Iranian regime rhetoric has intensified. Their leadership threatens and taunts America and shows little interest in diplomatic dialogue. Reports of unprecedented barbarism – even for this regime – are filtering out daily. Reliable estimates are that tens of thousands of civilians have been murdered in recent weeks and that similar numbers have been warehoused as they either die of untreated wounds, lack of food and water, or regime murder by firing squad or hanging. I make these comments based on multiple reports from reliable media and social media accounts, as well as discussions with expert sources and contacts. But I cannot offer conclusive verification. Frankly, at this stage, no one can.
Also in recent days there have been documented comings and goings of aircraft flying between Tehran and Moscow. President Putin is reportedly losing interest in this Iran mess and is cooling on his support for the regime. I believe and hope that these are they final days of this Islamofascist government.
Iranians are - for the most part - staying inside. Venturing outdoors for any reason invites arrest, or worse. “Security” forces are reportedly raiding private homes at all hours and hauling civilians off to – well, no one knows where. But too many seem to disappear. And if regime hardliners are losing hope and getting ready to flee – well, then that makes sense of all the fire-breathing from the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. If his days are numbered well, then, he might as well go out in what he would consider a blaze of glory. And that unquestionably means hitting Israel. Hard.
What we all worry about but do not discuss openly or out loud – because, really, what’s the point – is the possibility that the Iranians will send ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads our way. It is believed that they have worked hard on improving this particular capability since the 12-day war in June. So, yes. We worry. We wait.
And truth be told, most Israelis hope that this inevitable conflict happens soon and that the Iranian people are liberated from this 47-year hell.
Even my friend and one of the world’s pre-eminent Iran experts, Beni Sabti, agreed with me last night in a brief WhatsApp exchange following his regular appearance on channel 12 news in Israel – the most watched station in the country. Beni is likely not well-known to many of you because he rarely interviews in English (although his ability is much stronger than he thinks). Born in Tehran, his family escaped when he was a teenager and moved to Israel. His analysis is rich and his knowledge deep and nuanced. He’s also done some really cool work – like advising the producers of the hit television series, Tehran. (If you’d like to know more about Beni have a peek at his INSS bio here.)
But this week, Beni was much more focused on the crisis in Iran. And in his commentary on Thursday night on channel 12, he seemed to be leaning towards thinking that a U.S. attack on Iran is likely. This is a change of tune for Beni, so I messaged him immediately after to be sure that this is where he’s holding at the moment. And he replied that he had shifted his view in response to the increasingly sharp rhetoric coming out of Iran. When I suggested that perhaps the regime understood that D-Day was inevitable and figured that if they’re going down they might as well do as much damage to Israel as possible, Beni agreed, responding: “Exactly. A heroic death.”
So, we wait, as we do so often. We wait and prepare for another shabbat.
It’s Italian night at my place. I’m making my amazing lasagna – the kids are coming. Or – as my daughter refers to it – “pasta cake”.
Can’t have chicken every week.
I might even go full on lifestyle now and then in these pages and share some of my classic recipes. Simple, healthy, hearty food. Like my insanely delish olive oil lemon bars that I’m churning out these days – it’s citrus season in Israel. Nothing like baking with lemons just picked from the tree. Yes. Infinitely more flavorful.
Shabbat shalom. Have a lovely weekend.