Saturday Night Live: No Iran Attack, Yet

Things are heating up and all bets are off

U.S. Central Command Chief, Brad Cooper, arrived in Israel earlier today. He was joined later by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Some political types and pundits are taking at face value reports of high tension between the White House and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office and accept that these visits are intended to assuage Bibi.

I’m less certain about that. I think that they are here – in part to discuss the Peace Board – but also to confer in real time, face to face, about a possible attack on Iran.

Moments before pressing “send” on this note, new information broke. Apparently, the tension between Washington and Jerusalem turns on those who support a US attack on Iran, and those who oppose:

Those supporting:

• Vice President JD Vance

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio

• Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth

• Britain

• Israel

• United Arab Emirates
  

Those opposed:

• Special Envoy Jared Kushner

• Special Envoy Steve Witkoff

• Turkey

• Saudi Arabia

• Qatar

Fascinating. Allow me to suggest that Kushner and Witkoff should self-recuse from this particular decision because of personal and business-related conflicts of interest. I make this comment based on publicly available information. It’s no secret.

So - if you remove them from the equation, the battle lines are clear.

Against: Turkey. Saudi Arabia. Qatar.

For: Key US Administration officials. The UAE. U.K. Israel.

I appeared on i24’s English language political Newsroom show on Wednesday evening. Host David Matlin and I discussed: What’s really going on with the Board of Peace (which was announced earlier that day); and how President Trump would manage such a diverse group of Board members: Turkey. Qatar. Israel. UAE. And more – with most western countries taking a pass. Except – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. On Wednesday night he had accepted the invitation to be a member of the Board. But after taking yet another public and sharp shot aimed at President Trump – this time at Davos – Carney was uninvited the following day.

I’ll be writing about Carney’s astonishingly amateur handling of foreign policy for the National Post this week and will include that piece in a future dispatch. For now – I offer up two clips from my appearance at i24 a few days ago:

In this first clip I discuss the theatre of the Board of Peace and why PM Carney was prepared to accept an invitation to join – separating Canada from France and the UK, with whom he typically agrees and follows. Carney needs an economic lifeline and the Board of Peace would likely open doors for Canada to participate in the massive rebuilding projects in Gaza, Syria and – hopefully – a liberated Iran. Have a listen:

In this second clip, David Matlin and I speak about the risky strategy of bringing countries with sharply diverging interests to sit on the Board. I frame it as a classic Trump MO: create organized chaos. A squeeze play. And then step up as the conciliator who brings the parties together:

If you wish to watch the full segment – here’s the link:

Meanwhile, in Israel, we are assured by the IDF and Home Front Command that should Iran attack us (likely in response to a first strike on by US and other militaries) we are prepared to defend and that Iran can expect harsh retaliation.

In addition to the sudden visits of the most senior American officials today in Israel, two US floating army and air force bases – massive warships – arrived in the region in the last 48 hours. That means that the military assets needed to attack Iran are in place and ready. “Locked and loaded” as Trump famously said recently.

Multiple reports confirm that Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – has taken to an underground bunker in Tehran to wait out the uncertainty. Internet is partially restored in Iran, meaning that much more documentation of the massacres and brutality that have taken place since December 28 is circulating in the west. There are also reports of thousands of people arrested during protests who have been locked in huge warehouses and are being taken out in groups for executions.

On Friday, the top Prosecutor in Iran mocked President Trump’s claim that his threat to attack Iran if it went ahead with executions of protesters was laughable.

“This claim is completely false,” said Mohamed Movahedi. He dismissed the number stated by Trump – of 800 arrestees awaiting execution – as being fictitious. As well, he said, no such decisions had been made by the judiciary.

It’s safe to assume that every word Movahedi said was dictated by the advisers to the Supreme Leader. Bluster.

In the meantime, reports are trickling out of Iran confirming that mass executions have taken place in recent weeks. Thousands of arrested civilians are being held in large warehouses, awaiting firing squads.

Below is a link to my column in the National Post published on January 15, discussing the terror (wildly underestimated at the time) that has been unleashed on Iranian protesters by the regime, and arguing for a U.S. intervention.

Erfan Soltani, a 26-year-old Iranian clothing merchant, was arrested one week ago at his home in the city of Fardis. He is believed to have been charged with colluding against the country’s security activities and tried within days.

He was scheduled to be hanged in public on Wednesday, according to the Kurdish human rights group Hengaw. At the last moment, his sentence was delayed.

Soltani is one of millions of Iranians who have taken to the streets since December to demand an end to the brutal, theofascist regime headed by Iran’s supreme leader, 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

This week will be busy and we have some fascinating podcasts and written work in final production. We will be touching on topics as diverse as the slaughter of Syrian Kurds (while the world is focused on Greenland, Davos and Iran); escalating antisemitic violence in Canada – particularly Toronto; how the family of the last Israeli hostage held by Hamas is determined that phase 2 of the Trump Peace Plan must not begin until their son is repatriated; and an assessment of the security and strategic challenges faced by Israel in this ever-evolving volatility. That podcast will be with State of Tel Aviv and Beyond regular and a subscriber favorite: Lt. Col. (Res.) Jonathan Conricus.

Question for our premium subscribers: We would like to organize a small online discussion in the coming weeks. If you have suggestions for topics please contact me directly. vivian@stateoftelaviv.com

I thought that the following might be of interest:

• Why are ultra-orthodox Israelis opposed to serving in the IDF?;

• What is a likely outcome of Israel’s election in 2026?; and

• Life in southern Israel: Are residents of the “Gaza envelope” returning to the communities they were forced to abandon on October 7?

I’d love your feedback on these possibilities and any additional suggestions.

Thanks, as always, for being here.

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