Weekly Wrap: IDF Chief of Staff - “I am Waving Ten Red Flags”

What’s really going on in Israel these days……

For the first six months or so of the war with Hamas, Israelis publicly maintained a unified front/public face. But as the hostilities dragged on, and the hostages remained in captivity, the façade began to crack. We have been living in a state of war for close to three years – and that was on the heels of ten months of extreme domestic tension following the introduction of PM Netanyahu’s judicial reform legislation in early winter, 2023.

Since October 7, Israelis who serve in the IDF have carried an impossibly heavy burden. Many combat soldiers have spent much of the last 30 months in uniform. They are losing their jobs. Their businesses are failing. Their families are under intolerable stress. And in this environment, the government has slashed rehabilitation benefits for wounded veterans. The financial and therapeutic support provided to former hostages and their families is inadequate. Insultingly so.

And in this environment, the coalition government is scheming to finalize legislation that would exempt all ultra-orthodox men from serving in the IDF. Forever.

IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir first told us about one year ago that the army faced an immediate shortage of troops. The number was 12,000. Just last week, he said that the army has a troop deficit today of 20,000. There are 100,000 haredi men of conscription age who dodge and shirk. Zamir said this week that their continued refusal to serve – illegally – will mean that compulsory service for young conscripts who do show up will be extended. And reserve duty for most others will be increased.

For every government policy there is an inflection point – and Israel has long passed it when it comes to enforcing the shared burden and responsibility of defending the country.

When personal income tax levels exceed 60% in democracies – capital begins to leave the jurisdiction.

In Israel, the demands on a key demographic compound constantly, and the breaking point is near, if not already behind us.

At a security cabinet meeting last week, IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, is reported to have told the PM and his top MKs that “the IDF is going to collapse in on itself.” That and another comment made by Zamir have been analyzed without end in recent days by Israeli media: “I am raising ten red flags in front of you.”

Zamir explained that continued expansion of settlements and outposts in the West Bank is straining IDF resources, as is the escalation of Jewish terror targeting Palestinians. We can no longer look away or pretend that this is not happening. On top of that, the refusal of the ultra-orthodox to serve in the military is sheer madness.

“Before long”, Zamir is said to have warned the security cabinet, “the IDF will not be ready for its routine missions and the reserve system will not last.”

The Chief of Staff of the IDF is telling the government that the army will soon be unable to defend the civilian population.

To anyone paying attention in Israel, particularly since October 7, his words come as no surprise. We live this reality every day.

Recently, due to settler violence in the West Bank, a battalion of IDF troops that was intended to be sent to Lebanon was diverted to the West Bank.

It is important to recall that in the days before October 7, soldiers stationed along the Gaza border were deployed on an emergency basis to the West Bank. Speculation then was that the additional troops were needed to deal with constantly escalating violence. Then, as now, the demand for additional security would likely have come through Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich – who also has “authority over civil affairs in the West Bank”. Smotrich has been given a rather free hand in interpreting this vague mandate. The coalition government – and Netanyahu – seem unperturbed by Smotrich’s extremist tendencies.

This is the new Israel.

“Netanyahu…is tearing the State of Israel apart,” former PM Naftali Bennett said a few days ago. He was referring specifically to Netanyahu’s continued prioritization on finalizing legislation that will exempt the ultra-orthodox from the IDF draft. In order to preserve his governing coalition, PM Netanyahu is prepared to capitulate to almost any demand made of him by the ultra-orthodox MKs and other extremist coalition members, among them Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.

And the majority of Israelis, the Prime Minister presumes, will just step aside and accept it all.

It is a very high stakes gamble.

Since October 7, there has been a steady and growing increase in emigration from Israel.

One of many cases with which I am familiar, personally:

I have Tel Aviv based friends, a same-sex couple with two young children. One parent is a physician, the other a lawyer with extensive international experience in the high tech sector.

When their second child was born six months ago, they moved into a rental property. It is a beautiful, new, large penthouse apartment in a prized Tel Aviv neighborhood. The family that had intended to live there have since moved to the United States. For good. They are well-educated high-tech professionals who had no difficulty finding excellent jobs that included a relocation package. The father has had enough of serving most of his life in recent years in military reserve duty. The family see no future for their three young children in Israel. The parents have lived abroad previously but were committed to raising a family in this country. They no longer see this as viable.

My friends who are leasing the penthouse - with two very young children - also plan to relocate abroad once the new baby is a little older. They will have no difficulty finding work. In one fell swoop, nine of Israel’s finest citizens will leave. They would prefer to stay, but the price demanded of them by the state is just too high.

These reluctant emigres are random samples from a growing cohort that the government prefers to pretend doesn’t exist.

People are depleted and discouraged. The promotion of extremist interests by this government has pushed many Israelis beyond their limits; ideologically, politically, financially. Decision making and policy are skewed to ensure the survival of the coalition at any cost. And to do that, support of the ultra-orthodox and extreme nationalist parties is essential to preserve the razor thin majority coalition governing the Knesset.

When speaking of Israel and its people and challenges, “resilience” is a word that is too often invoked to laud the national fortitude of this country and its people. But the reservoir is draining.

Resilience is a trait that is fortified of and through necessity. But the supply – as with everything in life – is limited. Fatigue is setting in, even among the hardiest. I have watched too many people depart Israel with heavy hearts, and many more are contemplating doing so. Despair comingles with determination. Yes. We are still here. We soldier on. But the strains on this society are extreme and mounting.

We really must pay careful attention.

Ok. The challenge that I set for myself is to end each weekly wrap on a light note.

For much of the time since this most recent round of war broke out my daughter – who lives in the Tel Aviv area – has relocated to my place in the northern Negev desert. It’s actually not desert-like at all. As you’ve seen from photos posted in the past and mentions now and then, it is fertile, verdant, gently rolling hills. Breathtakingly beautiful. Especially in winter.

It is also way less densely populated than the central area of Israel, so everything is easier. And, in my little corner of the world, we have fewer missiles and sirens. Life is less disrupted and much calmer.

All of which lends itself to our new family past-time: doing puzzles. And the first one, completed a few days ago? Moraine Lake in Banff National Park, Canada. I picked it up on sale at a book and toy store in Sderot (city of 30,000 close to my kibbutz) a few months ago. I had to. Seeing Moraine Lake in Sderot was just so – random.