Summer Long Weekends and Crises Aplenty in Israel
We will keep you in the loop
I’m dropping a quick end of summer note as we move into the final long weekend before the school year kicks off in most places.
For the next week or so I’ll be tucked away somewhere in the European Alps, hiking in meadows, swimming in freshwater lakes and decompressing as much as possible. When you live where I do it is impossible to detach.
I will also be celebrating my birthday in the coming days. Please consider sending me some birthday love and supporting the work we do with either a paid subscription on Substack or - what many seem to prefer these days, a contribution to my new Buy Me a Coffee account. It can be one time, regular, any amount you choose.
Show your support for STLV at buymeacoffee.com/stateoftelaviv
Today, I am going to provide a sneak preview of what you can expect to receive from State of Tel Aviv in the coming week.
As always, these past weeks in Israel have been intense and surreal. The country is reeling from the government’s intention to launch a renewed military offensive against Gaza City. This comes on the heels of Hamas’ acceptance of a deal that would have seen the immediate release of ten living hostages as well as twice that number of bodies. The barter in lives – those still living and those not – is grotesque.
What shocked most Israelis this time was that the government of PM Benjamin Netanyahu has still not responded officially to this “offer”, reportedly infuriating Egyptian and Qatari mediators. They have been under extreme pressure by the United States to get this job done. After the horrifying videos distributed a month ago of Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David, hollow men on the brink of death, Israeli support for a deal to end this war surged. Bring the hostages home.
But Netanyahu is now saying (after having signed off on a partial deal) that it is all-or-nothing time. Israel either gets all hostages back in one fell swoop, dead and alive; Hamas surrenders arms and relinquishes power.
The Americans continue to back Israel.
Hamas exists to destroy Israel.
It’s leadership (ensconced safely in luxury in Doha) will never choose self-destruction. They will, instead, continue to sacrifice the civilians of the Gaza Strip and gamble. They have nothing to lose by holding out.
Then there is the disturbing inconsistency of the Netanyahu government’s approach to this situation. Israel, about two weeks ago, approved the most recent proposal. Hamas, we are led to understand, accepted 90% of the terms. Initially, President Trump and his Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, were keen to move forward with the partial deal and then immediately focus on negotiating the final stage that would result in the release of all hostages. Whether that outcome would ever have come to pass is another matter. Many believe that Hamas will never sign its own death warrant. Once the last hostage would be released Hamas would have less than no leverage.
The Government of Israel is telling its citizens that only military pressure will bring about the release of the hostages. Experience has taught us otherwise. It was one year ago – on August 31, 2024 – that six hostages were murdered by their Hamas guards at point blank range. Bullet to the head. Hersh Goldberg-Polin. Carmel Gat. Eden Yerushalmi. Almog Sarusi. Ori Danino. Alex Lobanov. We know that they were short as IDF troops neared the tunnel where they were used as human shields to “protect” former Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar.
Most Israelis believe that military pressure will only put the hostages in heightened danger. In fact, on Friday night, Hamas issued a statement that all hostages were being held alongside their fighters engaged in battle with the IDF. Previously, they had been kept deep underground in tunnels. If this is true, they will be more directly exposed to war and possible death. Any hostage who dies in the fighting, Hamas further stated, would be photographed and the image made public.
The IDF has been building towards a full siege of Gaza City for weeks now. After two years of war, so many are asking - why?
The population is exhausted and exasperated by the apparent detachment of political leadership from the reality of its citizens. And this is the issue that State of Tel Aviv will be exploring in the coming days.
We have prepared several podcasts and written articles focusing on the limits of Israeli resilience and the increasing concern that the government has led the people in circles since October 7, prioritizing its own political survival over the development and implementation of a clear and winning strategy.
What has transpired in recent weeks is unprecedented; where the recently appointed IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, is consistently humiliated and disparaged by senior government officials in cabinet meetings. The attacks on Zamir are led primarily by the two extremist cabinet members – Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich – who constantly threaten Netanyahu that if he does not comply with their demands that they will bring down his government. And, by all accounts, the Prime Minister gives these two men ample room to pursue their policy goals and berate key defense officials. Again last week, Smotrich suggested that if Zamir could not honor the direction given by the political echeolon that he should resign. For his part, Zamir lashed back at Smotrich, reminding him that he has less than no military experience or any idea as to how to mount a successful operation. And Netanyahu? He sat back and let it happen.
This, as he has ordered the IDF to prepare a major assault on Gaza City, where it is believed that most living hostages are held in the tunnels. To mount this renewed activity requires up to 250,000 soldiers, most of whom will be reservists. And many of them have served upwards of 400 days in the last two years. They are exhausted and depleted in every way. Physically. Psychologically. Families are straining under the burden of this long war. Reservists are losing their jobs and businesses. Even those diagnosed with PTSD are being called up, again. It is unsustainable, this burden, and yet the Prime Minister seems oblivious. While planning mass call-ups he is also straining and plotting how he can satisfy his ultra-orthodox coalition partners who are demanding that their young men be exempted, by law, forever, from serving in the military.
In the last few days there have been multiple media reports - not to mention anecdotal chatter among Israelis - that the numbers of reservists showing up for duty has declined significantly. In the immediate aftermath of October 7th, people rushed home - even those living abroad - to stand with their brothers and sisters in arms and save the nation. They did not wait for their official call-up notices. More than 120% of those eligible simply came.
Today, the Chief of Staff faces a much different reality. Responses to call-ups are said to be down dramatically, sometimes as low as 40%. I have spoken to many reservists, most of whom say that as long as they are physically able to they will fight. But they’ve lost their will to fight. They do not understand why they are still fighting. They feel they are being used for Netanyahu’s political brinksmanship. And they cannot let down their units. But in the same breath they say they no longer understand or support this war. And they watch, in disbelief, as tens of thousands of ultra-orthodox. men of draft age refuse to show up for duty.
Is Netanyahu out-foxing everyone? Calling Hamas’ bluff? Some ascribe to this theory. I do not. I see a flailing leader of a nation without a strategy. The IDF has been in and out of Gaza City countless times. Even the Chief of Staff has said, repeatedly, we have accomplished all military goals. This war can and must end with a negotiated settlement.
In the coming week, we will be publishing the following:
1) A lengthy podcast with Matan Yaffe – one of those reservists who has served more than 400 days in the past two years. He has also founded a new political party with fellow reservists, called El HaDegel, and these men and women present a serious challenge to the existing political status quo. Elections must be held by October, 2026.
Matan – and the millions of Israelis with whom his message resonates – is not some leftist, anarchist kook. Until now, the Netanyahu government has demonstrated a consistent proclivity to demean those who dare to disagree. Disparaging those who step up and put their lives on the line, day after day, is not a message that is being well-received by Israelis. Matan Yaffe is a serial, successful entrepreneur, combat reservist, father of five and he has a lot to say. I can assure you that PM Netanyahu is paying attention. The podcast with Matan Yaffe on El HaDegel will drop in two parts;
2) I had an unexpectedly busy few days last week, invited at the last minute to embed with the IDF on two outings; one to the Jenin refugee camp in the northern part of the West Bank and the second one to the outskirts of Rafah, inside the Gaza Strip. I will be bringing you exclusive video footage from the Strip as well as interviews and an inside look at the new humanitarian aid facility built by the IDF in the Rafah area. This podcast will drop in the coming days;
3) A conversation with the avuncular and thoughtful journalist and author, Yossi Klein-Halevi, will be published during the coming week. I interviewed Yossi several weeks ago to discuss the issue that really does keep so many Israelis awake at night: What has become of us and our values? It is a question that 24 year old hostage, Evyatar David, crouched in his filthy tunnel prison, asked us in a video published one month ago as well. Even if coerced by Hamas (as is any statement made by a hostage, anywhere) many of his pleas touched a very exposed nerve in Israeli society. “These are not the values I was raised on,” said David. “I feel that I have been abandoned.” That cut very, very deeply.
4) In early September, State of Tel Aviv friend and regular guest, Ya’akov Katz, will hit the road to promote his brilliant book, While Israel Slept: How Hamas surprised the most powerful military in the middle east, that will be released on September 2. We just finished a podcast interview on this masterpiece which digs deep into the still incomprehensible systemic failures that led to October 7. More on that soon. It’s a very revealing – and disturbing – study by Ya’akov and his co-author, Amir Bohbot, on how and why October 7 happened.
5) Lastly, I will post additional articles I write elsewhere and one or two just for this site.
I look forward to unwinding in the coming week, before gearing up for what is always a busy time. September and October. Based on the rate of call-up notices issued for IDF reservists – as well as other signs – it is expected that a full onslaught of Gaza City is imminent.
As I write this on Friday late afternoon in Vienna, we have just learned that Turkey has closed its airspace to all Israeli aircraft and has severed economic ties with Israel. Hamas quickly issued a statement praising this action of Turkey – a NATO ally, no less.
In closing, I wish you all a peaceful end-of-summer weekend. And in a shameless solicitation, I would ask you to consider supporting our work either by subscribing to State of Tel Aviv here or by making a donation – one time or ongoing – to Buy Me a Cup of Coffee, here.
We are supported by our subscribers. State of Tel Aviv receives no government or foundation grants, by design, allowing us to remain truly independent. Please, if you value our work and are able to, buy me a birthday present this year.
Until next time, stay safe and stay cool.
Vivian Bercovici
