Qatari airspace closed. Prison Break in Tehran?
IRGC attack on US airbase in Qatar thought to be imminent
Midday today, Israel time, the IDF confirmed that its jets had bombed the entrance to Evin prison, the notorious dungeon in Tehran where political dissidents and regime opponents are sent and often never leave. Not alive.
Hitting Evin Prison is more than a symbolic move. It is a regime icon and stronghold, not unlike Russia’s famous Lefortovo prison in central Moscow. Whether the Israeli strike has meant that prisoners can escape is unclear at the moment. But the attack augurs well for those who would like to see the fall of this tyrannical regime.
Officially, regime change is not a goal that either the United States nor Israel has stated as a priority of these attacks on Iran but it would certainly be a welcome development.
On his Truth social account early today, President Trump was direct, as always:
A few hours later in a press scrum, Trump’s spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, seemed to back off his bold assertion a touch, saying that American military goals - the eradication of the country’s nuclear program - have not changed. She indicated that he simply raised the possibility that the Iranian people may rise up and revolt.
In a recent television interview with Israeli journalist Ayala Hasson, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was coy. Asked if regime change in Iran was a goal of the IDF attacks, Netanyahu demurred, stating that it was certainly not the primary reason for attack, but if regime change were to transpire as a result, that would not be an unwelcome development. But Israel’s main aim is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. Full stop.
After the hit on Evin earlier today, the exiled Shah – presumptive heir (in the eyes of many, but not all) to leadership of a liberated Iran – applauded the Israeli strike on Evin and openly called for the people of Iran to rise up.
At a press conference in Paris today, Pahlavi announced that he is working to establish a central communication center for all opposition interests.
“This is our Berlin wall moment,” he said, invoking the literal fall of the wall separating East and West Berlin that symbolized the powerful hold of communism on much of Europe.
Pahlavi addressed Ayatollah Ali Khameini directly during his remarks, urging him to relinquish power and face due process. He also offered something of ann amnesty to members of the armed forces that choose to abandon the regime.
You can watch Pahlavi’s speech here.
After several popular uprisings in Iran since 2009 – when western nations failed to support popular aspirations – Iranian people are now terrified to act boldly. Just two years ago, in the wake of 22-year-old student Masah Amini being beaten to death by the morality police in Tehran – there were widespread protests in response. In the end, the brave women and men who led these acts were silenced. Beaten. Imprisoned. Murdered. Terrified into submission.
But this time may be different. In addition to the Evin bombing, Israeli Air Force jets dropped explosives on several IRGC stations as well as the Basij HQ – a division of the IRGC that is often identified as leading the charge on enforcement of “morality” issues. Like enforced wearing of hijab.
Should there be regime change, the paramount issue and concern, of course, is who would replace the tyrannical mullahs who have ruled Iran since 1979? As is the case with revolution and regime change, things can skid into chaos quickly. Then again, we have the recent and so-far very surprising sanity that has prevailed in Syria under the rule of former al Qaeda man, Ahmed al-Shaara. He has clearly aligned his country with the moderate Gulf states, Israel and the United States. Tellingly, he allowed Israel freedom of movement in Syrian skies. Israeli air dominance is complete in the region.
The takeover of Sednaya prison in Damascus by opposition rebels in early December, 2024, was a seminal moment in the ouster of President Assad. Prisons, in dictatorships, tend to become metaphors for the broader state of society.
Iran, for millions, is a terrifying prison.
For decades, Iran has fomented terror worldwide and is often analogized to the “head of a snake”; the snake coil, of course, being the long, slimy body that trails it.
The snake is the axis of terror, Iran has financed and trained a network of proxy terrorist forces throughout the middle east and the world. Like a house of cards, so many years and billions of investment and hard work seems to be falling.
Also a key member of this alliance of evil is Qatar, the master of playing every angle and side. Qatar is nowhere. Silent. Qatar is in a pickle. It has benefited hugely from pretending to be an ally of America and hosting the largest US military base on its territory – and footing the bill for its operations.
On the other hand, Qatar is the main financial and diplomatic benefactor of Hamas, Hezballah and the Houthis. Well, something is up.
Earlier today, America issued an emergency alert to all its citizens in Qatar to shelter in place until further notice. Sobering, to say the least.
Most Gulf nations – including the powerful Saudis – have expressed “deep concern” and called for de-escalation and restraint. In the context those are pretty lame protestations. It is no secret that the Sunni Gulf nations consider Iran and its allies and proxies to be deadly dangerous enemies. They are likely celebrating, quietly, the pounding that Iran’s military and nuclear sites are taking from America and Israel.
This just in: shortly before 7 pm Israel time. Qatari airspace is closed, which, of course includes the largest U.S. air base in the middle east which is, amazingly, located in the country. Turkish airlines has cancelled all flights to the UAE and it is likely that country will soon close its airspace as well. These signs suggest a significant and imminent attack in the region targeting American interests and assets. By the time you read this it may have already occurred.
Iran will not “win.” The regime is detested by the vast majority of the people of Iran. One year ago, the Iranian leadership believed it had the world by the tail. Since then, Hezballah and Hamas leadership has been decimated. Now Iranian leaders have been assassinated in a series of laser sharp strikes.
The Iranian regime is strong and vicious. But withstanding the military pressure of Israel and the US – as well as domestic dissent – may be too much.
I certainly hope so.
Signing off at 7:15pm in Israel.