Missiles Strike in Central Israel and Massive Attacks in Iran

Too many civilians played roulette, asking themselves: "what are the chances?".....

It has been a very difficult 48 hours in Israel with no respite likely in the coming days. All indications from the ruling regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran are that it will intensify the conflict with Israel, which will likely engage American and other western forces very soon.

There were too many direct hits on civilian neighborhoods in central Israel on Friday night and into the early morning hours. As I dash off this note, three civilians are confirmed dead and scores injured. The Home Front Command, IDF other officials continue to stress the importance of sheltering in a proper safe room. Many Israelis in central Israel live in older buildings—as did I until one year ago. Our only option when sirens wailed was to huddle in the stairwells. They are thought to be reinforced and the safest place—in the absence of a shelter or safe room. The closest public shelter to my apartment (located in the heart center of Tel Aviv) was a three-minute run or a five-minute brisk walk. Public shelters in Tel Aviv tend to be dirty, smelly, airless, and dank. They have not been updated since the 1967 or ’73 wars. The bombing of civilian centers in Israel was not an issue for decades—until recently. And infrastructure improvements have not kept pace.

You may have noticed in photos and film clips of neighborhoods in Tel Aviv that suffered direct hits from Iranian missiles overnight that the newer construction held up well. Older buildings crumbled.

Clearly, addressing these structural deficiencies will be a longer-term priority. But we do know that those who are following Home Front directives survive. And those who do not seek refuge in safe rooms are the ones dying or suffering injuries.

I was shocked to receive a message from a friend living in central Tel Aviv. She sent me photos of blast damage to her home from last night. The hits weren’t direct. But her home is old, and glass shattered. Walls cracked. Chunks of plaster just fell off. When the sirens blast, she crams herself into a “protected space” under the stairwell. It’s a form of roulette that too many Israelis are playing.

“What are the chances?” they reassure themselves.

When my friend and I were messaging last night I told her she must relocate. She bragged about how close her home was to the Kirya – IDF headquarters – which must be the safest place in Israel. Wrong, I corrected her – reminding her of April 13-14, 2024, when Iran targeted Tel Aviv in particular with hundreds of drones and missiles. Central Tel Aviv and the Kirya? They were now prime targets.

After last night she got the message and is going to be staying with friends going forward.

I recall an incident—I believe it was during the May, 2021 conflict when Palestinian Islamic Jihad was hammering Tel Aviv with rocket fire. A man living on the outskirts of Tel Aviv was in the shower when the sirens blasted. He thought for a moment, “what are the chances?” Within seconds, he grabbed a towel and ran downstairs. A rocket slammed directly into his bathroom within minutes.

Apparently, the chances are higher than we might think.

Below is a link to my latest in the National Post—on life in Israel under attack.

Tomorrow I plan to publish a short podcast with a top Iran expert in Israel—who also happens to be Persian—and brings a depth of knowledge to this conflict that few do. As long as my sound guy can manage a few minutes out of his safe room (with five young children and his wife), we should manage to get that out tomorrow (Sunday).

Yes. These are jittery times. Very jittery.

Here’s the link to my op-ed in the Nat Post. Thanks, as always, for being here. And to those of you who appreciate our work, please consider becoming a paying subscriber if you have not already done so. We are independent and deeply committed to bringing our followers timely, thoughtful, and factually grounded information and analysis. If you are reading and listening, then you appreciate our time, work, and product. Please subscribe if you are able to. It makes a huge difference.

I absolutely LOVE the paragraph I quote in my Nat Post piece from Tom Friedman’s (yes—that Tom Friedman) NYT op ed (hyperlinked).

“President Trump has deftly used the Israeli attack to, in effect, say to the Iranians, “I am ready to negotiate a peaceful end to your nuclear program, and you might want to go there fast—because my friend Bibi is C-R-A-Z-Y.”

Brilliant.

Here’s the full piece:

Attack sirens wailed in every corner of Israel at 3 am on Friday morning, including the isolated kibbutz in the south where I live. This was followed immediately by an ear-splitting screech that overrode every Israeli cell phone. It was followed by a message from the Home Front Command. The screech and message were unprecedented. It did the trick and grabbed the attention of this war-weary nation.

We were urged to shelter in place. Something about a major attack. I honestly cannot remember the precise wording, and it doesn’t really matter. The point was sharp and understood.

Subsequent messages clarified that Israel had just launched a massive attack on Iran. Retaliation could be swift and devastating. Within seconds of the siren and Home Front message, tens of thousands of reservists received call-up notices to present at their bases immediately. As in. Right now.

If you are fortunate to have a safe room in your home, like me, then you seal it shut and ensure that there are adequate supplies of fresh water, food, emergency batteries and the kind of things you will need if locked in there for hours, or days, on end.