Israeli hostage deal unlikely as they continue to be used as pawns

None of this bodes well for the remaining hostages, who have been in captivity for over 320 days

My latest column, published yesterday in Canada’s National Post newspaper, on the dire state of hostage negotiations. Does Netanyahu want a deal? Does Sinwar? That’s what I dissect in this piece.

Israeli hostage deal unlikely as they continue to be used as pawns

None of this bodes well for the remaining hostages, who have been in captivity for over 320 days

Interrupting the main 8 p.m. newscast in Israel on Tuesday night, Daniel Hagari, the Israel Defence Forces’ chief spokesperson, looked into the camera and announced that the bodies of six hostages had been recovered from Gaza.

Hagari has been facing Israelis for 10 months now, during some of the most horrific moments in the country’s history. He has done so with steely composure, but never lacking compassion. On Tuesday, he confirmed that the bodies of six men — Alex Dancyg, 75, Chaim Peri, 79, Yoram Metzger, 80, Avraham Munder, 78, Yagev Buchshtav, 35, and Nadav Popplewell, 51 — had been returned to Israel.

They had survived in the harshest conditions imaginable. For months. All had been declared dead previously but Munder.

Buchshtav and Popplewell were kidnapped from Kibbutz Nirim. Munder, Dancyg, Peri and Metzger were kidnapped from their homes on nearby Kibbutz Nir Oz.

These mostly elderly men, who had just celebrated a special holiday in the Jewish calendar with their families and friends the night before, were beaten and forced into the Gaza Strip. Like many of the other hostages, they were forced to descend deep below the surface into the dark tunnel network.

The deeper one goes, the less oxygen there is and the more humid it becomes. It is dark. The air is putrid. Hamas thugs constantly measure oxygen levels and go to the surface for air. But not the hostages.

Adina Moshe, a 72-year-old former hostage, said that while in captivity, she and her fellow hostages were visited by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Imprisoned in Israel for over 20 years, Sinwar applied himself to learning Hebrew and the Israeli psyche. He mastered both. Also while incarcerated, he fell ill. The prison’s dentist took him to the hospital, where it was discovered that he had a brain tumour. A top neurologist operated and saved Sinwar’s life. The dentist’s nephew was murdered on October 7.

When Sinwar approached the hostages in their tunnel cages, he was jovial, asking them, “How are you? Is everything OK?” The hostages were reassured that they’d be home soon. That was over 320 days ago.

Sinwar miscalculated. He was confident that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would roll over and release thousands of Palestinian security prisoners in Israeli jails, in return for the freedom of the hostages. He himself, after all, was freed in 2011, when Netanyahu agreed to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for one IDF soldier, Gilad Shalit, who was captured five years earlier.

Today, 109 Israeli hostages remain in captivity. It is believed that up to 80 may still be alive. Physical, sexual and psychological abuse have been extreme. Security officials are deeply concerned — based on reliable intelligence — that one or more of the young female hostages are about to, or have already, given birth.

On Monday, Netanyahu met for three hours with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who reported that the prime minister had agreed to a new “bridging formula” to facilitate a hostage release agreement. What, exactly, that meant was unclear.

It has been well understood for some time that Netanyahu refuses to budge on his “red line” of controlling two key corridors in the Gaza Strip: Philadelphi, which runs along the border with Egypt, and Netzarim, which bisects the Strip from north to south.

Sinwar, of course, has made clear that he will never accede to these demands. His red line is a ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. (Philadelphi is the main arms smuggling artery for Hamas. Netzarim is important to prevent movement of Hamas fighters within the Strip.)

Blinken’s “bridging formula” was, it seems, intended to address the corridor impasse so that the parties may get to the technical negotiations over hostage releases (which, by all accounts, are well advanced). Ideally, the bridging formula would dislodge both sides from their intransigent positions.

On Tuesday, Netanyahu hosted a meeting with supporters from the extreme right-wing groups Gvura and Tikvah, which are comprised primarily of families of fallen soldiers. They are opposed to any hostage agreement if it means the cessation of hostilities. Their goal is to “destroy” Hamas — whatever that means — which aligns perfectly with Netanyahu’s position.

In the meeting, Netanyahu stated that, “Israel won’t leave the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor under any circumstances.” Meaning, in plain language, that he is prepared to see the hostages die in brutal captivity.

For the last month or so, the heads of all key Israeli security and intelligence institutions — including the Mossad, Shin Bet and IDF — have stated publicly that Israel can manage a full withdrawal from Gaza and safeguard national security. It is imperative, they say, that the hostages are freed before they all die.

Following his meeting with Netanyahu on Monday, Blinken met that evening with several hostage families, assuring them that Bibi is committed to a deal. But their hope is battered. Many think Bibi is bluffing.

A lot of Israelis believe that Netanyahu will sabotage any deal because it would almost certainly bring down his government for complex domestic political reasons. Which means that a state commission of inquiry into October 7 would be convened. And that would destroy what is left of Netanyahu’s reputation and legacy.

Some — like his extremist coalition colleagues — support continued conflict in Gaza and are not committed to repatriating the hostages, reflecting a deep and bitter chasm in Israeli society.

And there are a few who believe that Bibi is just being a savvy negotiator, although it is difficult to see what evidence supports that proposition.

A deal does nothing for Sinwar. Hostages have value — dead or alive — and give him leverage. Despite his savagery, western governments are soft on him and his benefactor, Qatar.

Pro-Hamas protesters in the West see Hamas as the underdog. Queers for Palestine, and many others, seem to have difficulty comprehending that this is a brutal Islamist group that throws homosexuals from tall buildings, bound and blindfolded, to loud cheers from civilian spectators.

Sinwar has the world by the tail. And he understands the Israeli psyche — perhaps better than anyone.

None of which bodes well for the hostages.