Imminent Hostage Release and Peace?

Early stages of a surreal transformation of the middle east

What a night. What a day.

I am sure you are all overwhelmed and inundated with information, so I’ll keep this brief.

My column in the National Post today can be accessed at this link:

Here are the first few paragraphs:

At approximately 3 a.m. (Israel time) U.S. President Trump announced on Truth social that a deal had been done.

Eight hours later, Israelis were notified that a ceasefire was imminent. Jubilation does not begin to capture the mood. A small group of hostage families and former captives were filmed earlier today crowding around a telephone and thanking President Trump, profusely, for his dedication to resolving the hostage saga.

Notably, they have not had a similar conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is widely perceived in Israel to have dragged out the war for political reasons, and to have treated the hostage issue with far less urgency than it merited.

I wish I could provide the whole piece, but all articles in the National Post are paywalled. (But they do allow access to a few pieces each month without a subscription.) It’s a resurgent trend in the business, and one that you will soon encounter here on a regular basis. But for now, it’s status quo at State of Tel Aviv and Beyond.

I thought I’d point out some interesting details that have not been noted in the media – at least not in anything that I’ve seen.

A key part of this plan is the rebuilding and development of the Gaza Strip. President Trump specifically noted that the funds for this project will be provided by countries in the region – some very wealthy, some less so (he made a point of remarking). In other words, he has clearly said to Qatar, Egypt and Turkey something along these lines:

You have supported Hamas, diplomatically and financially. You have given their operatives safe haven and allowed them to smuggle huge quantities of weapons into the Gaza Strip over many years. That makes you responsible for creating this mess and now you are going to pay to fix it.

That the countries in the region are footing the clean-up bill is a clear acknowledgement of their culpability in empowering a savage terrorist organization. Trump is not offering up American funds and he is certainly not inviting the United Nations (which he views as a corrupt-to-the-core entity that should cease to exist) to finance this massive undertaking.

A second interesting point:

Hamas has made clear at the negotiating table that they are unable to locate the remains of the 28 hostages who were murdered in captivity. So, a multilateral force comprised of American, Israeli, Turkish, Qatari an Egyptian experts will co-ordinate and do the hard work on the ground of finding and identifying the corpses. Again, this is an astonishing development. Note that neither the UAE nor Saudi Arabia are included in this exclusive group. It seems to me that Trump has said to the same countries - Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, yet again:

“You are going to do the dirty work here. This is your mess. We’ll be in the picture to ensure that it is done properly.”

President Trump is feared in the middle east, as I have pointed out many times. And that is because he takes moral stances and follows through on threats. This is a tough neighborhood. He seems to intuitively understand what works and what does not.

All day long on television, there has been a hopeful tone and a huge sigh of relief. We have seen hostage families beaming from ear to ear. A five year old boy will finally see his father. As will twin girls of the same age – who were also held hostage (with their mother) for close to two months.

Every time there is a hostage release, Israelis are glued to the television on the day of. The anticipation is excruciating. Hostages are paraded in propaganda shows by Hamas (that will not be happening this time). They are humiliated one last time before jeering crowds of civilians. Then they are put into Red Cross vehicles and driven to an agreed handover location just inside the Gaza Strip where the IDF takes over.

Only then do we hear the TV journalist say the following:

“They are in our hands.”

This time, until we hear these words on Israeli television we will hold our breath.

“They are all in our hands.”

And, just to keep things real, I just received this update from one of the chat groups I’m in – which focuses on security and intelligence matters.

Senior Hamas leader and member of the Hamas negotiating team, Khalil al-Hayya:

We declare that we have reached an agreement to end the war and the aggression against our people, and to begin implementing a permanent ceasefire. We received American guarantees that the war will not resume.

And then there’s this gem, stated today by senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan:

“We will not agree to disarm.”

We are at the beginning of a long road.